Jefferies: Prediction Market Volume Hits Record $4.13B Daily Average in October

US prediction markets averaged a record $4.13 billion in daily volume in October 2026, up 55% from September, according to a Jefferies report by analyst Daniel Fannon published on 4 November 2026.

The latest prediction market volume reading extends a run of monthly records and arrives as the US midterm Election Day, 3 November, has just passed. Open interest, the value of contracts still outstanding, also hit a record. Polymarket, the largest single platform, kept its lead, while the Robinhood and Susquehanna venture Rothera lost a little share.

October prediction market volume: the headline numbers

Average daily volume (ADV) reached $4.13 billion, up 55% on September. This is a monthly average, not a single-day total. Open interest rose 45% to $3.27 billion. Jefferies also reported that sports contracts took 83% of open interest, up from 73% in September.

The 55% is a month-on-month comparison. The year-on-year gains in the report apply to individual platform groups, shown below.

Jefferies gives Polymarket a 17% share and the other tracked platforms about 7%. Rothera, which launched in June, held 1.2% of industry volume, down from 1.5% in September. Its $49 million daily average also sits below the $70 million Jefferies recorded for it in July.

Sports still carries the market

Sports contracts made up 78% of October volume, flat on September. Non-sports markets, which cover areas such as politics and economics, grew at the same 55% pace as sports. That kept the mix unchanged even as open interest tilted further toward sports.

Fannon also pointed to combination contracts, which work like parlays. According to Casino.org, which quoted the report, combo activity climbs at weekends, and DraftKings' DKeX platform carries a higher combo share than the industry. No DKeX volume figure was published alongside that observation.

How October compares with earlier months

Jefferies' July reading was $1.91 billion in ADV, up 9% on June, with sports at $1.33 billion and non-sports at $424 million. October's $4.13 billion is more than double that level. In June, Jefferies reported ADV up 80% on the prior month, with sports at 89% of volume. Sports' share of volume has since fallen to 78% as non-sports markets have grown.

The figures also sit alongside a separate September data set. Stifel put prediction market taker volume at $17.7 billion for September, up 27%, against sportsbook handle up 43%. Taker volume is a different measure from ADV, so the two sets of growth rates do not line up directly. Gamingo's earlier look at prediction markets setting September records while US sportsbook handle stayed flat covers that comparison in detail.

Regulatory pressure is building alongside the volume

The growth is landing in the middle of a policy fight. Ohio told its gaming licensees to cut ties with prediction markets by 30 October or risk their licenses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding as the NBA chose Kalshi and Polymarket, covered in the NBA prediction markets pact.

Outside the US, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said it is not convinced retail prediction markets serve the public interest. Meanwhile the Nevis Online Gaming Authority has opened a prediction market license to B2C and B2B applicants, giving operators a licensed offshore route.

For operators, suppliers and payment processors, the October data shows volume still compounding at a pace that regulators are now trying to match. The next Jefferies release will show whether sports' 83% share of open interest persists after the election.

Status reviewed on 4 November 2026. The figures come from Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon's October report as quoted by Casino.org and GamblingNews. More business news and North America coverage.