ASIC Says It Is Not Convinced Retail Prediction Markets Serve the Public Interest
Australia's securities regulator says retail prediction markets look like bets, echoes its binary options ban and stops short of a ban or enforcement.
Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) Chair Sarah Court said on 30 October 2026 that the regulator is not currently convinced retail prediction markets are in the public interest, while stopping short of a ban or enforcement action.
The statement, published as media release 26-261MR, is not a formal ruling. It sets out ASIC's current view and signals how a future application for an Australian market licence from a prediction market operator would be judged.
What ASIC said about prediction markets
ASIC's core position is that retail prediction markets have not shown they serve the public interest. The regulator says the contracts have "all the features of a bet" and are typically all-or-nothing on a single event. Its examples include whether it will rain tomorrow and whether a sports team will win, or by how many goals.
That structure, ASIC says, raises questions about whether the contracts are investment products at all. It also names three market integrity risks:
- misuse of confidential information
- market manipulation
- disputes over how an outcome is determined
The legal backdrop is section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001, which requires ASIC to have regard to whether granting an Australian market licence would be in the public interest. ASIC lists the provision as background rather than as part of its attributable statement.
According to Bloomberg, relayed by Bitcoin.com News, Court told a Senate estimates hearing on 29 October that no prediction market operator has applied for a licence and that any application would face a high bar.
The binary options precedent
ASIC says the all-or-nothing feature is shared with binary options, which are prohibited for retail clients in Australia. It describes its prediction market position as consistent with that earlier approach.
There is one structural difference. ASIC notes that prediction market contracts are generally offered through a market platform, while binary options were sold over the counter through brokers. That distinction matters for any licensing question, because a platform model points toward the market licence regime in which section 798A applies.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 1 April 2021 | ASIC announces a product intervention order banning binary options sales to retail clients |
| 3 May 2021 | The ban takes effect |
| 2022 | ASIC extends the order to 1 October 2031 and releases Report 736 |
| 30 October 2026 | ASIC says it is not currently convinced retail prediction markets are in the public interest |
ASIC's 2022 release gives the loss data behind the ban. In the 13 months to 3 May 2021, between 74% and 77% of active retail clients lost money. Aggregate net losses were $14 million: loss-making accounts lost $15.7 million in total, while profit-making accounts made $1.7 million.
Offshore platforms and licensee obligations
The practical message for consumers is that offshore access carries no local safety net. ASIC says Australians who use offshore prediction markets directly have no protection under Australian law.
For the industry, the message is aimed at licensed firms. Australian financial services licensees that facilitate access to offshore prediction markets keep all of their licence obligations. That covers brokers, platforms and intermediaries that might otherwise treat such access as a product extension.
ASIC's Moneysmart consumer site says no prediction market operators are licensed as financial markets in Australia and that users are "more likely to lose money than make money". Polymarket's geographic-restrictions page lists Australia (AU) as a blocked jurisdiction.
How this compares internationally
ASIC says its approach matches that of comparable jurisdictions, including parts of Europe and the United Kingdom, which restrict similar event contracts. On 17 June 2026, regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland issued a joint declaration agreeing to cooperate closely against prediction market platforms that do not comply with local rules.
The Australian stance contrasts with the more fragmented US picture, where the debate runs through state regulators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Recent Gamingo coverage tracks that split: Ohio told gaming licensees to cut ties with prediction markets, North Carolina tightened ethics rules as prediction markets expanded, and the NBA signed on Kalshi and Polymarket under a non-binding CFTC memorandum. Earlier, Michigan began investigating sports prediction markets.
Volume data shows why regulators are paying attention. Gamingo reported that prediction markets set records in September while US sportsbook handle stayed flat.
What operators and licensees should take from it
The statement carries no penalties, but it narrows the room for a retail launch in Australia. An operator seeking a market licence would need to answer ASIC's public interest concern directly, including how it would handle information misuse, manipulation and outcome disputes. Intermediaries holding an Australian financial services licence should treat any link to offshore platforms as a live compliance matter.
Status reviewed on 3 November 2026. Key figures and quotations come from ASIC's 30 October 2026 statement and its 2021 and 2022 binary options releases. More regulation news and Oceania coverage.
Frequently asked questions
Are prediction markets banned in Australia?
No. ASIC's statement of 30 October 2026 is a position on the public interest, not a ban or an enforcement action. ASIC says it is not currently convinced retail prediction markets serve the public interest, and no prediction market operator is licensed as a financial market in Australia, according to its Moneysmart guidance.
Why does ASIC compare prediction markets to binary options?
ASIC says prediction market contracts are typically all-or-nothing on an event, a feature shared with binary options. Binary options are prohibited for retail clients in Australia under a product intervention order that took effect on 3 May 2021. ASIC calls its position on prediction markets consistent with that approach.
Can Australians use Polymarket or Kalshi?
Polymarket's geographic-restrictions page lists Australia as blocked. ASIC says Australians who use offshore prediction markets directly have no protection under Australian law. Australian financial services licensees that facilitate access to such platforms keep all of their licence obligations, so the regulator expects them to stay compliant.
What is section 798A of the Corporations Act?
Section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001 requires ASIC to have regard to whether granting an Australian market licence would be in the public interest. ASIC cited it as background to its 30 October 2026 statement, which signals how a future licence application from a prediction market operator could be assessed.
How did binary options perform for Australian retail clients before the ban?
In the 13 months to 3 May 2021, 74-77% of active retail binary options clients lost money, according to ASIC. Aggregate net losses were $14 million. Loss-making accounts lost $15.7 million in total, while profit-making accounts made $1.7 million.
