Prediction Markets Set Records in September as US Sportsbook Handle Stays Flat Across 15 States
Gambling Insider reports September sportsbook handle was flat year over year across 15 states while prediction markets posted record trading volumes.
US sportsbook handle was virtually flat year over year in September 2026 across 15 states, according to Gambling Insider, while prediction markets posted record trading volumes in the same month.
Football's return produced the usual rebound from August, but it did not lift handle (the total dollars wagered) above last year's level. Revenue told a weaker story in several markets, and the volume figures from event-contract platforms point to a sector growing on a different base.
September handle: seasonal lift, no annual growth
Handle recovered from August as the NFL season began, but year-over-year growth was absent. Gambling Insider reported weak handle growth in several major markets and noted that the 2026 FIFA World Cup gave an unusual summer boost to both sportsbooks and prediction markets, which makes the September comparison harder to read.
Earlier data pointed the same way. The Closing Line reported on 19 October that handle across early-reporting markets was flat and revenue was down 2%. It described the dip as the first year-to-date pullback of the post-PASPA era, referring to the period since the US Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, the federal ban on state-regulated sports betting.
Stifel's analysis, reported by Casino.org on 21 October, put reporting-state handle up 43% from August. That is a month-over-month measure driven by the football calendar, not a year-over-year gain.
Prediction markets: record volume, with a caveat
Regulated prediction-market volume reached about $77 billion in September, up 64% from August, according to Stifel as reported by Casino.org. The Closing Line separately reported that Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, recorded its first $4 billion single day.
| Metric (September 2026) | Figure | Change vs August |
|---|---|---|
| Regulated prediction-market notional volume | $77 billion | +64% |
| Estimated taker volume (retail turnover) | about $17.7 billion | +27% |
| CFTC-regulated single-wager sports volume | $22.8 billion | +23% |
| Parlay "combo" volume | $41.6 billion | +122% |
| Reporting-state sportsbook handle | n/a | +43% |
The CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that oversees these exchanges. Stifel extrapolated its taker figure from the two largest platforms.
Why notional volume and handle do not line up
Notional volume counts every contract at its $1 settlement value, so it exceeds the money customers actually stake. Gambling Insider flagged the two measures as not comparable. Stifel's taker estimate, at roughly 23% of notional, is the closer analogue to handle, and on that basis prediction-market turnover grew 27% month over month against 43% for sportsbook handle.
That gap does not show cannibalization in either direction. Handle stayed flat year over year while event-contract volume climbed, and aggregate figures cannot show whether the same customers are moving between products. The question matters to regulators too: Ohio told licensees to cut ties with prediction markets by 30 October, and the NBA's choice of Kalshi and Polymarket followed a non-binding CFTC memorandum of understanding. Offshore jurisdictions are positioning as well, with Nevis opening a prediction-market license to B2C and B2B applicants.
State results diverge on handle and hold
The two markets with September figures available show opposite handle trends and shared pressure on hold, the share of handle operators keep as revenue.
| State | Handle | Year over year | Hold / revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | $712.6 million (implied) | -10% | $54.1 million won, 7.59% hold |
| New York | $2.4 billion | +5% | $159.4 million gross revenue (-17.7%), 6.6% hold vs 8.4% |
RG.org reported that Nevada's implied handle was the thinnest for a September since 2020. The figure is derived from the win and hold in the state report. Covers, citing the New York State Gaming Commission, said New York handle rose despite one fewer NFL week than in September 2025. For the casino side of Nevada's month, see Gamingo's report that Nevada gaming win held flat at $1.28 billion.
What operators should watch
Three indicators will show whether September was a pause or a turn:
- Hold normalization. New York's 1.8-point hold decline cut revenue sharply even with higher handle, so October results will show whether this was variance or pricing pressure.
- Taker volume. Retail turnover on event-contract platforms is the metric to track against handle going forward.
- State action on licensees. Regulators that restrict licensed operators from dealing with prediction markets, as Ohio has, change how the two sectors compete. Earlier regulatory scrutiny, including Michigan's investigation of sports prediction markets, shows this issue has been building for more than a year.
Status reviewed on 2 November 2026. Figures come from Gambling Insider, Casino.org citing Stifel, RG.org and Covers citing the New York State Gaming Commission. More sports betting news and North America coverage.
Frequently asked questions
Did US sportsbook handle grow in September 2026?
Not year over year in aggregate. Gambling Insider reported September handle across 15 states as virtually flat against September 2025. Football's return lifted handle from August, and Stifel put reporting-state handle up 43% month over month, but that is a seasonal comparison. Results varied by state, with New York up and Nevada down.
How big were prediction markets in September 2026?
Stifel estimated regulated prediction-market notional volume at $77 billion, up 64% from August, according to Casino.org. Of that, CFTC-regulated single-wager sports volume was $22.8 billion and parlay combo volume was $41.6 billion. The Closing Line also reported Kalshi's first $4 billion single day.
Can prediction-market volume be compared with sportsbook handle?
Not directly. Notional volume counts each contract at its $1 settlement value, so it overstates the money customers actually put at risk. Stifel estimates taker volume, or retail turnover, at about 23% of notional, roughly $17.7 billion, up 27% in September. That figure is the nearer analogue to sportsbook handle.
Are prediction markets taking customers from sportsbooks?
The September data does not settle it. Handle was flat year over year while prediction-market volume set records, but the 2026 FIFA World Cup boosted both sectors over the summer, and aggregate figures cannot show whether the same customers are shifting. Taker volume rising slower than handle growth month over month adds a data point, not an answer.
What happened to sportsbook revenue in September 2026?
Revenue fell in several markets even where handle held up. New York's gross revenue dropped 17.7% to $159.4 million as hold slid to 6.6% from 8.4%, according to Covers citing state data. The Closing Line reported early-reporting markets down 2% in revenue.
- Prediction Markets
- Kalshi
- Betting Revenue
- Monthly Revenue Report
- Nevada
- Football Season
- CFTC
