Kalshi Passes Polymarket in US Prediction Market Search Demand for October, Blask Data Shows
Blask's October data gives Kalshi 51.8% of US prediction-market search demand to Polymarket's 37.5%, ending a 29-month run, but daily leads still flipped.
Kalshi took 51.8% of US prediction-market branded search demand in October 2026, ahead of Polymarket's 37.5%, according to Blask data published on 10 November and reported by Gambling Insider and TheGamblest.
The figures use Blask's Brand Accumulated Power (BAP) metric, which tracks each brand's share of search demand. Kalshi's Blask Index rose 153% month on month while Polymarket's fell 3%. The result ends a run of 29 monthly leads for Polymarket, though the daily picture shows the margin is thin.
What the October Blask figures show
Kalshi finished October with the larger share of US prediction-market search demand, 51.8% against 37.5% for Polymarket. Polymarket had ranked first every month from May 2024 to September 2026, per TheGamblest. Kalshi last led in April 2024, when Blask tracked only 12 US brands.
| Measure | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 BAP search demand share | 51.8% | 37.5% |
| Blask Index, month on month | +153% | -3% |
| October 2024 search demand share | 8.5% | 88% |
| Share on 4 November 2026 | 47.5% | 51.5% |
The gap between the two brands in 2024 was wide. During the presidential election, Polymarket held 88% of search demand to Kalshi's 8.5%. TheGamblest reports that Kalshi stayed below 30% for most of the next two years and only began closing the gap in July 2026.
Blask's earlier release, covering January to August 2026, showed the same direction. Polymarket's share fell from 74.3% to 57.8% over that period, while Kalshi's rose from 23.1% to 35.8%, according to Gambling Insider. Blask said then that it had not yet tested whether search share predicts trading volume.
Why the lead is narrow
The monthly result masks a back-and-forth at daily level. According to TheGamblest, Kalshi first out-searched Polymarket on a single day on 19 October. The two then swapped first place several times in late October, and Polymarket led every day from 25 to 30 October. Gaming America, citing Blask, reports Polymarket's daily share rose to 64% on 28 October.
Polymarket also led on 3 and 4 November. The monthly lead is therefore real, but it has not yet shown up as a stable daily pattern.
Midterm spike and the year's peaks
The day after the midterms, 4 November, search demand reached about four times October's daily average. Polymarket took 51.5% of it and Kalshi 47.5%. Sigma adds that the two brands together accounted for 99% of measured demand that day.
It was not the largest spike of 2026. The year's peak came on 2 March, when demand ran about 7% above the 4 November level and Polymarket alone took 87%. TheGamblest and Sigma link that surge to the Iran strikes. Super Bowl LX on 8 February was the third-largest peak, with demand split almost evenly between the two brands.
Search demand is not trading volume
Blask's metric measures share of search demand. It does not show users, accounts or money traded, and Blask has itself cautioned against reading search as volume. Trading data points the other way on the midterms. Kalshi traded $127.4M across 11 midterm markets overnight on 3 and 4 November, against $30.6M for Polymarket, per Gaming America. CNBC reported that more than $1M traded on a single Kalshi market on the Texas governor's race on election night, and that prediction markets mostly called the races correctly.
That split between attention and money matches earlier coverage. Gamingo's report on record October prediction market volume from Jefferies uses a separate volume basis and should not be read against the Blask search shares.
Valuations and the wider market
Capital markets have treated both brands as large. The Daily Upside puts Kalshi's valuation at $40B, up from $22B in May, and Polymarket's at $21B as of August, up from $15B in April. Gamingo covered the round in Kalshi's $1 billion Series G at a $40 billion valuation.
Brand attention is also shaped by league partnerships. The NBA memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, signed on 26 October, named both Kalshi and Polymarket. Blask's separate work on offshore brands in another market is covered in Gamingo's French search demand report, which uses a different dataset.
For operators, affiliates and payment partners tracking US prediction markets, the October data offers a read on brand attention. The November daily figures will show whether Kalshi's monthly lead holds once election-driven demand fades.
Status reviewed on 11 November 2026. Search-share figures are Blask data as reported by TheGamblest, Sigma, Gaming America and Gambling Insider. More business news and North America coverage.
Frequently asked questions
Who leads US prediction-market search demand in October 2026?
Kalshi led in October 2026 with 51.8% of branded search demand, against 37.5% for Polymarket, on Blask's Brand Accumulated Power metric. It is the first monthly lead for Kalshi since April 2024, per TheGamblest, which reported Polymarket first every month from May 2024 to September 2026.
How long did Polymarket lead Kalshi in search demand?
Polymarket led for 29 consecutive months, from May 2024 through September 2026, according to TheGamblest's account of the Blask data. In October 2024, during the presidential election, it held 88% of search demand to Kalshi's 8.5%. Kalshi stayed below 30% for most of the following two years.
Does more search demand mean Kalshi has more traders than Polymarket?
No. Blask's figures measure each brand's share of search demand, not users, accounts or trading volume. Blask has said it had not tested whether search share predicts trading volume. Kalshi also carried far more midterm trading volume than Polymarket, so search and volume are separate measures.
What happened to prediction-market searches after the 2026 midterms?
On 4 November 2026, the day after the midterms, search demand reached about four times October's daily average, per Blask data reported by TheGamblest and Sigma. Polymarket took 51.5% of that day's demand and Kalshi 47.5%. Together the two brands accounted for 99% of measured demand, according to Sigma.
What was the biggest prediction-market search spike of 2026?
The year's peak came on 2 March 2026, when demand ran about 7% above the 4 November level and Polymarket alone took 87%, according to Sigma and TheGamblest. Strikes on Iran drove that spike. Super Bowl LX on 8 February was the third-largest peak, split almost evenly between the two brands.
