Brazil Goes to the Runoff With Betting Banned and a Bolsonaro Friend's Wagers Under Scrutiny

Brazil will choose its president on 25 October with its regulated betting market shut down. Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394, issued by President Lula's government on 25 September, bans fixed-odds betting nationwide. In the final days of the campaign, betting has also become personal: a Finance Ministry note says a lawyer close to Lula's opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, was the country's biggest bettor in 2025, and Federal Police material on suspected money laundering involving both men has reached the Supreme Court.

These are two separate stories, and they need to be kept apart. The ban is law, for now. The allegations are not findings: no one has been charged, and both men reject any wrongdoing.

Brazil's betting ban at a glance (23 October 2026)

A market closed in eleven days

MP 1,394 goes far beyond the "restrictions" it is sometimes described as. It prohibits the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, both on real sports events and on online casino games, in physical or digital form. It reaches operators based abroad that serve Brazilians and those authorized by states and the Federal District. New licenses are barred and pending applications fall away.

The timetable was brutal:

• 25 September: no new deposits; players could still withdraw.
• 6 October: sites and apps disabled; open bets voided and refunded in full.
• Within two days of shutdown: operators send banks and the Finance Ministry's Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) a list of players and balances; refund money must be segregated.
• Seven days later: banks return the funds, preferably to the original account.
• 30 days after publication: licenses issued under Law 14,790/2023 lapse, with no refund of the license fee and no compensation.

Operators that fail to refund face a daily fine of R$200,000. Payment providers may not process betting transactions, app stores must remove betting apps, advertising and sponsorship are treated as abusive, and the Finance and Justice ministries can order internet providers to block sites.

According to figures reported in early October, the government said 188 platforms had to leave the market, and player balances on 6 October totaled about R$1.3 billion. The industry says 83 companies paid R$2.55 billion for 85 licenses that the measure cancels without compensation. Associations also reported a sharp rise in unauthorized domains after the ban was announced, the black-market effect Flutter Brazil's chief executive warned about when he said overregulation could drive bettors to the black market.

It is a dramatic reversal for a market that only opened in January 2025 after years of rulemaking, including the ban on betting bonuses and tighter ad rules, and that was already facing a constitutional challenge at the Supreme Court.

Congress and the Supreme Court hold the next move

A provisional measure has the force of law immediately but must be confirmed by Congress. Lawmakers filed 99 amendments before the deadline closed on 13 October. Many from both chambers would take sports betting out of the ban, while others propose advertising limits, partial refunds of license fees, a transition for club sponsorships, or public health care for people harmed by betting.

The joint committee that must review the text was designated on 30 September but had not been installed by mid-October. From 9 November the measure blocks the agenda of the house where it sits, and the initial deadline for a vote is 23 November, extendable once by up to 60 days. If Congress does not act, the measure lapses.

In the courts, the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and the Brazilian Responsible Gaming Institute (IBJR) asked Justice Luiz Fux, in ADI 7721, to suspend the measure, or at least delay the transition until 31 December 2026. The broadcasters' association Abert has also asked the STF to suspend it. The Attorney General's Office (AGU) wants the measure kept in force. No ruling had been reported in early October.

Betting on the campaign trail

The ban landed in the middle of the election. In the first round on 4 October neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro won a majority, sending them to the 25 October runoff. Flávio's campaign has made the measure a campaign topic, and he is reported to support one of the options in Congress: separating sports betting from online casinos rather than banning both.

The Willer Tomaz case

The second story concerns Willer Tomaz, a lawyer and a friend of Flávio Bolsonaro.

What the Finance Ministry note says. A technical note from the SPA dated October 2026, first reported by UOL, says Tomaz wagered about R$5 billion in 2025 on authorized platforms, more than anyone else in Brazil, and withdrew more than R$200 million. Records in the administrative process show 2,145 deposits worth R$325.3 million and 2,733 withdrawals worth R$180.3 million, a net loss of about R$145 million.

What the Federal Police material says. According to Estadão, a Federal Police inquiry into suspected money laundering involving Flávio and his relationship with Tomaz reached the STF and was assigned to Justice Alexandre de Moraes. It grew out of a first-instance investigation in Rio Grande do Sul into payment platforms and the betting sector. The police report "indications" that Tomaz had de facto control of a betting company, Rede Loto, and say an account in his name moved about R$130 million between March and May 2025. Material from Tomaz's iCloud reportedly includes references to meetings and trips involving Flávio, and an account of Alcazar Holding on which Flávio appears as "master user."

What they say. Tomaz's lawyer says the money has a lawful origin, is compatible with his income and is declared to the tax authorities, that the ministry's figures "do not correspond to reality," and questions the leak of a confidential document during an election. Flávio's campaign says he is not under investigation at the STF, because the material has not been turned into an inquiry: the Prosecutor General has not given an opinion and no judge has ruled. Flávio calls his relationship with Tomaz a friendship and the suggestion of wrongdoing "mere inference, without any basis in fact."

Turnover is not proceeds

The R$5 billion figure needs care. It is betting turnover: every time money is re-staked it is counted again, so a bettor with far smaller deposits can generate a very large handle. The deposits and withdrawals, R$325 million and R$180 million, measure different flows. None of these figures is a finding of profit, of criminal proceeds or of a crime.

For the industry, the case shows why licensed markets require source-of-funds checks and transaction monitoring for high-value players. It does not, on its own, prove anything about the people involved.

What happens next

• 25 October: presidential runoff, and the expiry of federal betting licenses under the measure.
• 9 November: MP 1,394 starts blocking the congressional agenda.
• 23 November: initial deadline for Congress to vote, extendable by 60 days.
• The STF may rule on the requests to suspend the measure at any time.
• The Tomaz material depends on the Prosecutor General's opinion and on Justice Moraes.

The result of the election will shape the first two. Neither the ban's future nor the outcome of the investigation should be treated as settled.

Status reviewed on 23 October 2026. Allegations are reported as such; no charges have been filed against the people named. More regulation news and Latin America coverage.