BGC Forecasts £500m in Illegal Bets Over Britain's Jump Racing Season

The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has forecast that about £500m will be staked with illegal operators during Britain's 2026-27 National Hunt jump racing season, including around £10m over the three-day Cheltenham November Meeting this weekend.

The trade body for licensed UK betting and gaming operators issued the forecast ahead of Safer Gambling Week, which runs 16-22 November. City AM reported it on 12 November. The numbers are the BGC's own estimates, produced by an organization that lobbies on behalf of licensed operators.

What the BGC is forecasting

The BGC expects illegal stakes to reach roughly £500m across the season, with a cluster at the sport's biggest fixtures. It names the King George VI Chase at Kempton, the Cheltenham Festival in March and the Grand National at Aintree in April.

Grainne Hurst of the BGC framed the season around the illegal market, citing "£500m expected to be staked on the illegal black market". She added that the BGC will keep working with the Government and the Gambling Commission, the UK regulator, on the issue.

The evidence the BGC cites

The BGC points to two outside data sets to support its view that the illegal market is expanding.

The first is analysis from WARC, an advertising research firm, which the BGC says shows unregulated operators account for almost half of UK gambling ad spend. A WARC report commissioned by the BGC and published in April 2026 forecast regulated operators' ad spend falling 9.2% to about £1.05bn, while unregulated spend rises 32% to £845m, according to gambling.com.

The second is H2 Gambling Capital, a gambling market data provider. The BGC cites its forecasts of illegal stakes rising from £17bn in 2026 to more than £33bn by 2028. Those are H2's projections, relayed by the BGC, and they cover the whole illegal market rather than racing alone.

On the enforcement side, our report on the IFHA study of illegal betting traffic published on 10 November covers separate research into how much illegal traffic persists despite UK enforcement.

How it compares with the BGC's earlier estimates

The BGC has used the Cheltenham calendar for black market forecasts before. In March 2026 it said up to £60m might be staked illegally during the Cheltenham Festival. It reached that figure by applying an estimated 6% illegal share of all betting stakes to roughly £1bn of Festival betting, and it put annual British racing turnover at about £11bn.

The November forecast has not been linked to the March method, so the two sets of figures should not be read as one model. Earlier BGC work includes its 2024 report of £4.3bn in annual UK black market stakes, a broader all-sports estimate.

Policy asks and the BGC's case for the licensed sector

City AM reports that the BGC has also called for unlicensed operators to be banned from football sponsorship. That follows Everton keeping its commercial partnership with Stake, which is unlicensed in the UK.

The BGC's wider argument is that the licensed sector funds racing, employment and the Treasury, while illegal operators contribute nothing and offer no safer gambling tools. The trade body has pressed this line on tax policy before; see our coverage of its 2023 warning on a proposed gambling tax structure.

For operators and affiliates, the practical signals are the pressure on unlicensed advertising and sponsorship, and the likelihood that the BGC will keep citing racing fixtures to make its case during Safer Gambling Week. Black market sizing is also a live issue in other markets, as in Brazil's more than 2,000 illegal betting sites ahead of its licensed launch.

Status reviewed on 14 November 2026. The £500m and £10m forecasts are the BGC's own estimates, and the £17bn and £33bn projections are H2 Gambling Capital figures relayed by the BGC. More regulation news and EMEA coverage.