Genius Sports Q3 2026: Revenue Up 62% to $269.9m, Guidance Raised, Shares Fall

Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI), the sports data and technology group listed on the New York Stock Exchange, reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $269.9m on 5 November 2026 and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $1.015bn–$1.035bn, yet its shares fell and several brokers lowered price targets.

The numbers beat the company's own guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for items the company excludes). The market reaction was more cautious, driven by a per-share loss and a sharp rise in interest costs.

Q3 2026 results: revenue up 62%, adjusted EBITDA up 156%

Revenue rose 62.3% to $269.9m from $166.3m, against company guidance of $260m. Adjusted EBITDA rose 156% to $87.1m from $34.0m, against guidance of $85m, lifting the margin to 32.3%, about 12 points higher than a year earlier. Revenue grew by well under double; only adjusted EBITDA more than doubled.

Betting revenue growth came from price increases on renewals and renegotiations, more value-add services and growth in existing markets, according to the company's results release. Media revenue more than doubled mainly because of the Legend acquisition.

Over nine months, revenue was $653.3m, up 52%, and adjusted EBITDA was $163.7m. The nine-month net loss was $147.9m and free cash flow was negative $136.2m, so the strong third quarter sits against a weaker year-to-date cash picture.

Guidance: a $10m revenue raise and a $2m EBITDA raise

Genius Sports raised both full-year ranges, but only by roughly the amount it beat its Q3 guidance. The revenue range moved up $10m and the adjusted EBITDA range up $2m.

Subtracting nine-month results from the new ranges implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $362m–$382m and adjusted EBITDA of about $123m–$133m. The company expects year-end cash of about $260m, which its release says implies more than $100m of free cash flow in the second half.

Cash stood at $206.5m on 30 September, down from $280.6m at 31 December 2025. Interest expense was $19.1m in the quarter against $0.1m a year earlier, and TipRanks headlined its coverage around higher debt.

Share price falls and analysts split on targets

The stock dropped on the day of the release. MarketBeat reported shares down 18.8% intraday on 5 November, and Yahoo Finance shows a 6 November close of $5.97. Gambling Insider put the 5 November close at $5.78.

MarketBeat said the $0.06 loss per share compared with analyst expectations of a $0.01 profit, which helps explain why a revenue and EBITDA beat was met with selling.

Broker moves after the results:

Macquarie's note, as reported by Gambling Insider, says the fourth quarter "could be one of the largest beats in our space". The same report says the $11 target implies 90% upside from the $5.78 close, that betting revenue beat consensus by 7%, and that NFL in-play gross gaming revenue rose 50%.

Before the results, GuruFocus listed an average target of $11.00 from 21 analysts, with a high of $20 and a low of $6. Several of the new targets sit below that average, though most remain well above where the shares trade.

Prediction markets, Brazil and media deals drive the story

The results release lists several commercial developments in the quarter:

• Partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi covering content, integrity services and marketing solutions.
• The launch of Prediction.com.
• SAOT offside-detection technology for the Brazilian football federation, the CBF.
• A media partnership with basketball player Chris Paul.
• A Liga MX rights deal with TelevisaUnivision.

After the period ended, Genius Sports announced a partnership with X for NFL Gametime and an expanded SAOT agreement with the Argentine football association, the AFA.

How it compares with the sector's Q3 reporting

Genius Sports reports into a supplier-side earnings cycle that has been mixed. Sportradar's Q3 2026 results showed revenue up 24% to €362.5 million, while Kambi's Q3 2026 results showed revenue up 23% to €46.0m and adjusted EBITA up 161% despite the Brazil ban. On the operator side, Rush Street Interactive's Q3 2026 results paired a 39% revenue rise with an estimates miss, and Super Group's Q3 2026 update included a guidance cut.

Against that backdrop, Genius Sports is one of the few names to raise full-year guidance this season, though the raise is small and the equity market has focused on the loss line and the debt load.

Status reviewed on 11 November 2026. Financial figures come from the Genius Sports results release filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 5 November 2026, while analyst and share-price details come from press reports. More finance news and EMEA coverage.