Black Market Gambling Surges in UK and Netherlands

New data from the UK and Netherlands reveals an unintended consequence of stricter gambling regulations. Rather than curbing risky behavior, recent legal reforms appear to be funneling players into the black market. With losses from unlicensed sites nearing parity with regulated markets, experts warn of growing risks to both consumers and industry revenue. Stakeholders are now calling for smarter, balanced regulation that protects players without pushing them underground.

Crackdown Backfire: UK and Dutch Gambling Curbs Fuel Black Market Boom

Key Points:

1. Black market gambling in the Netherlands nearly matched legal market turnover in Q4 2024.
2. UK traffic to offshore gambling sites is surging, driven by influencer marketing and regulatory fatigue.
3. New restrictions, including spending caps and affordability checks, may be inadvertently driving players away from licensed platforms.

Efforts to tighten online gambling regulations in Europe have triggered unintended ripple effects. According to newly released data from both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, recent regulatory crackdowns have coincided with a notable rise in black market gambling activity — suggesting that current enforcement strategies may be driving consumers away from regulated platforms.

In the Netherlands, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) reported that in Q4 2024, Dutch gamblers spent €305 million on illegal gambling sites, nearly matching the €306 million spent on licensed platforms. This development marks a major shift from earlier in the year, when the legal sector claimed around 58% of market share.

Regulatory Shift Fuels Consumer Exodus

The surge in illegal gambling activity came shortly after new protective measures took effect on 1 October 2024. The rules introduced mandatory monthly spending caps:

• €150 for players under 24

• €350 for adults over 24

To exceed these limits, users must submit proof of affordability — a move designed to minimize harm, especially among younger demographics. While the KSA reported early wins — such as a drop in high-risk gambling behavior — it also noted a parallel increase in offshore activity.

Average monthly losses among adults fell from €160 to €148, and the percentage of users losing over €1,000 monthly dropped from 4% to 1.4%. However, illegal gambling losses grew, likely driven by consumers seeking less restricted, more engaging experiences.

The total staked amount (minus winnings) rose by 6% in 2024, reaching €1.5 billion. While growth slowed later in the year, the black market’s increasing share remains concerning for regulators and legal operators.

UK Black Market Driven by Social Media & Regulation Fatigue

Across the channel, a report by UK-based gambling harm group Deal Me Out uncovered a similar trend. According to the organization, offshore gambling sites are drawing millions of UK users, fueled by a potent mix of streaming influencers, social media referrals, and regulatory frustration.

Their findings include:

• Up to 5 million social media clicks per month redirect users to unlicensed sites.

• Influencers provide VPN guidance to bypass geo-blocks and access non-KYC gambling platforms.

• Black market sites often feature banned elements like autoplay, turbo spins, and high-roller bonuses.

The UK’s recent regulatory reforms — particularly mandatory affordability checks and design changes to high-risk games — were intended to reduce gambling harm. Yet, for many players, these interventions have become a turn-off, prompting migration to platforms that offer less scrutiny and more freedom.

Deal Me Out estimates that 400,000 underage individuals are actively gambling on offshore sites, often drawn in via loot boxes, skins betting, and in-game currencies that circumvent age verification laws.

A separate study found that UK black market gambling has grown 522% over the past three years, with much of the increase occurring in the last 12 months.

The growing preference for offshore gambling in both the Netherlands and the UK illustrates a troubling paradox: as governments impose tighter controls to protect players, more gamblers are seeking freedom — and risk — in the unregulated black market. While some regulatory victories have been achieved, the long-term effectiveness of these measures must now be questioned. As the industry watches these trends, one message is clear — without smarter, more adaptable policies, well-meaning reforms may end up doing more harm than good.