France Aims to Ban Polymarket

French regulators are taking action against Polymarket after a massive spike in election betting led by a French high-stakes bettor, known as the “Trump Whale.” With millions wagered on U.S. election outcomes, France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) is now considering a ban on Polymarket, a crypto-based, unregulated betting site, to protect French consumers and uphold strict gambling regulations.

France Targets Polymarket Ban After French “Trump Whale” Wins Millions in Election Bets

The recent U.S. 2024 presidential election attracted unprecedented interest from global bettors, particularly from a high-profile French trader who amassed millions on Polymarket by betting on a Trump victory. The bettor, known as the “Trump Whale” and identified as Thèo, wagered approximately $30 million through multiple anonymous accounts, leveraging the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. In response to this surge in election-related betting, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), France’s national gambling authority, has moved to ban Polymarket, citing concerns about the platform’s unregulated status and potential risks to French consumers.

Key Points Behind France’s Move to Ban Polymarket

1. Unregulated Betting and Crypto Integration
   Unlike traditional regulated platforms, Polymarket operates as a decentralized, crypto-based betting site, which has allowed it to sidestep certain restrictions in various markets. The ANJ is now scrutinizing Polymarket’s operations, as it falls outside the bounds of France’s strict gambling regulations, which aim to protect players from potential fraud and addiction. French regulations strictly limit legal betting to licensed entities overseen by the ANJ, ensuring player safety and fair play. An ANJ spokesperson shared that they are “aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation.”
2. The Rise of the French “Trump Whale”
   The “Trump Whale” emerged as one of the most profitable bettors on Polymarket’s platform, reportedly earning $48 million from his predictions on the U.S. election outcome. Thèo, as he is known, used multiple accounts to place high-stakes bets, analyzing data from polls and surveys to forecast an outcome that would favor Trump. He placed substantial wagers under accounts like Theo4, Fredi9999, and PrincessCaro, each reflecting his confidence in his analytical insights. “If he loses, I would accept that I was wrong in my analysis, but I really doubt about that,” Thèo stated in an interview with Stefan Tompson from Visegrád 24.
3. Divergent Approaches to Regulation: France vs. U.S.
   While Polymarket remains banned in the United States, it continues to operate in several international markets. In the U.S., the platform faced a shutdown by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 for failing to register. However, bettors often use VPNs and other methods to bypass restrictions, a practice that could raise concerns in France. In contrast, the U.S. recently granted conditional approval for election betting through Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market platform. Kalshi’s entry into the market allowed for legally sanctioned election betting, an option not available for decades due to CFTC restrictions.

Despite these differences in regulatory approaches, both the U.S. and France share concerns about the impact of unregulated platforms. France’s potential ban on Polymarket highlights the country’s dedication to maintaining strict control over its gambling industry and protecting its citizens from unregulated markets.

International Betting Trends and Implications

The 2024 election marked a high point for global election betting, with U.S.-based and UK platforms reporting record handles. Kalshi and Betfair in the UK saw millions of dollars in election bets, indicating robust demand for prediction markets around high-stakes events. However, as France considers action against Polymarket, the case underscores the challenges countries face in regulating decentralized, crypto-based platforms, particularly when they cater to international bettors through digital loopholes.

For platforms like Polymarket, France’s potential ban may serve as a warning signal, pushing them to reconsider their unregulated operations in regions with stringent gambling laws. For regulators, the move is part of an ongoing effort to control unauthorized gambling and ensure that platforms align with national standards.

The ANJ’s intent to ban Polymarket sends a clear message about France’s commitment to regulatory compliance and player safety. The high-profile activity of the French “Trump Whale” has spotlighted the risks associated with unregulated, crypto-based betting platforms in election-related gambling. As France moves to enforce its strict gambling laws, the outcome could shape the future landscape of prediction markets and online gambling in the country. This development reflects the broader regulatory challenges nations face in adapting to the rapid rise of decentralized and cross-border betting platforms in the digital age.