Inspired Entertainment Cuts 2026 EBITDA Guidance to $109M–$112M on Brazil Shutdown as UK Duty Rise Looms

Inspired Entertainment (INSE) lowered its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target to $109 million–$112 million in a 5 November 2026 earnings release, blaming the shutdown of regulated online betting and gaming in Brazil, and confirmed that UK machine games duty rises to 25% from April 2027.

The supplier reported third-quarter revenue of $61.4 million, down 29% on a reported basis. Most of that fall comes from businesses that are no longer in the group.

Brazil shutdown drives the guidance cut

The guidance cut is the main news in the release. Inspired says the reduction is primarily due to the "unexpected" prohibition or suspension of regulated online betting and gaming in Brazil. Brazil is about 5% of total revenue, and the company says near-term mitigation is limited.

The earlier $112 million–$118 million range was first set out in the Q1 2026 release. The midpoint falls by about $4.5 million. Year-to-date free cash flow conversion is about 22%, so the full-year shortfall against the 20% target implies weaker conversion in the final quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA is a company-defined non-GAAP measure: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, with further adjustments set by Inspired. Nine-month Adjusted EBITDA was $78.9 million, so the new range implies fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $30.1 million to $33.1 million, against $28.2 million in the third quarter.

UK machine games duty rises to 25% in April 2027

Inspired says the UK Budget confirmed that machine games duty, the tax on gaming machine takings, rises from 20% to 25% from April 2027. CEO Brooks Pierce called the increase "disappointing but manageable" and said it removes uncertainty about the size of any rise.

Footnote 2 of the release also states that UK remote gaming duty rose from 21% to 40% from April 2026. The company cites the higher rate when explaining year-on-year comparisons in its online business.

Q3 results: reported decline reflects divestitures

Revenue for the three months to 30 September 2026 was $61.4 million, against $86.2 million a year earlier. Inspired says the year-ago quarter included the UK Holiday Parks business, divested on 7 November 2025, and the Pubs business, which has since been restructured.

Excluding the divested and restructured businesses, Inspired says revenue grew about 4% year on year. Adding back the effect of the UK tax rise, it puts growth at about 9%, with Adjusted EBITDA growing at roughly twice that pace. These like-for-like measures are defined by the company.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 46%, against 37% a year earlier. Inspired calls this a record margin, excluding any periods that included a UK VAT rebate.

For the nine months to 30 September, revenue was $179.4 million, down 21%. Adjusted EBITDA was $78.9 million, against $79.1 million, and the net loss was $0.4 million.

Product and market activity

The release lists several commercial milestones:

• Alberta: Inspired went live on day one in the newly regulated Alberta market. Customers include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Rush Street Interactive, Caesars and bet365. Earlier coverage looked at Rush Street Interactive's Q3 results and DraftKings' guidance cut, both Inspired customers in the province.
• Massachusetts: Virtual Sports launched on the Massachusetts Lottery's new iLottery platform, powered by Aristocrat Interactive, in the fourth quarter. The game is Post Time Payout.
• FanDuel: Virtual Sports was expanded with FanDuel for the fourth quarter.
• Genting Casino: Inspired delivered more than 200 Velos electronic table game terminals out of an order of 310. The remainder is due in the fourth quarter.
• Dominican Republic: It installed 300 lottery terminals for LEIDSA, part of a programme of about 3,000 terminals running into the first half of 2027.

Inspired has a record of supplying gaming terminals and content to operators in other markets, including the OPAP video lottery terminal fleet and its bet365 partnership in Mexico.

Executive Chairman Lorne Weil said a pipeline of opportunities should "more than offset" the regulatory impacts. The release also points to debt reduction and share repurchases as capital priorities.

What it means for operators and suppliers

The cut shows how quickly a single market closure can change a supplier's outlook, even where the market is only about 5% of revenue. For Inspired, the direct hit is Brazil. The larger structural factor is the UK, where tax increases on both machine and remote gaming weigh on reported comparisons, though the company says the April 2027 machine games duty rise is manageable.

Status reviewed on 6 November 2026. Figures come from Inspired's 5 November 2026 Form 8-K press release filed with the SEC. More finance news and North America coverage.